Game 39 - Final Report

Germany - Argentina

Going into this the final match of the Tipster, the top of the table looked like this:
199  - Paul
198  - Ben
186 - Alex K

The Final of the Tipster Cup was between Franz and Ben.

Many people tipped the 1st goal to be scored just before half-time, with tips for the 41st, 42nd, 43rd, 44th and 45th minute, as well as two tips for the 15th and two for the 25th. In the end, Matt's tip for the 55th minute was closest, a mere 58 minutes away from the actual time. This was the 'worst' winning tip for the Time in this year's Tipster, :-) but still gains him 3 points.
Nobody tipped Götze as first goal-scorer, so no points there.

Fourteen people tipped a German victory; Matt tipped a draw; and three people tipped Argentina to win.
Although nobody got a perfect Score in this match, two people tipped a 1-goal victory for Germany: well done Paul and Franz, 7 points for each of you, which brings you both victory!

Congratulations to Paul for winning the Tipster League!
And Franz wins the Tipster Cup. Well Done!

Paul tipped the correct winner in 31 of the 39 Tipster matches.
2nd place in both tournaments was claimed by Ben, while Alex K came 3rd in the League.
Søren beat Craig to 3rd place in the Cup and looks as cheerful as Messi receiving his Golden Whatever last night. ;-)

Tipster Cup Final:
Franz 7
Ben 5

Tipster Cup 3rd place play-off:
Søren 5
Craig 0

The Winner's Curse continues, with 2012 Champion Alex J scoring just 98 points:
- Franz won the 2006 Tipster, but finished 5th in 2008
- Ben won the 2008 Tipster, but finished 7th in 2010
- Mark won the 2010 Tipster, but finished 12th in 2012
- Alex J won the 2012 Tipster, but finished 19th in 2014

Excluding the Italian default, I'm pleased to announce that the prize pot is 100% full. I'll contact the winners directly to arrange transferring the prize money.

Tips, and the Final Table Standings, are in the posts below, as well as Part II of the Statistics.


That concludes the 2014 Tipster - I hope you've enjoyed it. If I run a Tipster for Euro 2016, I will be in touch.....

Thanks for playing!

Final Tipster League Table

Here are the final standings of the 2014 Tipster:

Rank	Name	Points		Rank	Name	Points		Rank	Name	Points
1	Paul	206		8	André	146		15	Ralph	127
2	Ben	203		9	Craig	144		16	Ernst	121
3	Alex K	191		10	Jens	143		17	Joe	120
4	Matt	181		11	Søren	140		18	Stephan	106
5	Franz	161		12	Simon	137		19	Alex J	98
6	Jim	160		13	Alex U	136		20	Greg	38
7	Joris	149		14	Mark	134

Game 39 Tips (Final)

Germany - Argentina					Points
Name	Score	Scorer	Time		Points	Running Total
Alex J	x:x	x	999		0	98
Alex K	3:0	Thomas Müller	13		5	191
Alex U	1:2	Lionel Messi	15		0	136
André	1:2	Gonzalo Higuaín	43		0	146
Ben	2:0	Thomas Müller	45		5	203
Craig	2:3	Lionel Messi	44		0	144
Ernst	3:0	Thomas Müller	15		5	121
Franz	2:1	Thomas Müller	53		7	161
Greg	x:x	x	999		0	38
Jens	4:0	Ben Nelson	23		5	143
Jim	3:1	Thomas Müller	20		5	160
Joe	2:0	André Schürrle	36		5	120
Joris	3:0	Miroslav Klose	25		5	149
Mark	3:1	Thomas Müller	20		5	134
Matt	0:0	Sami Khedira	55		3	181
Paul	2:1	Thomas Müller	42		7	206
Ralph	4:2	Miroslav Klose	27		5	127
Simon	3:1	Thomas Müller	25		5	137
Søren	2:0	Thomas Müller	41		5	140
Stephan	4:0	Thomas Müller	8		5	106

Statipstics - part II

Best Points per Game:
Alex J scored the 2nd most points per game that he tipped, averaging 5.76 (Greg achieved 6.33 in his 6 matches).
Alex K, Ben and Paul all averaged more than 5 points per game and tipped pretty much every single game too; Franz averaged 4.97 from his 31 games.
The median score was 4.23 points per game tipped.

First Scorer:
In 22 of the 37 matches, none of us managed to tip the correct 1st Scorer. Three of those games ended 0-0, but that's still 19 matches where all 20 of us failed.
8 people correctly tipped Dzeko to score first in the Bosnia & Herzegovina - Iran game, and 7 tipped Messi to score first in the Nigeria - Argentina game.
Ben and Paul both tipped the correct Scorer in 5 matches; Joris and Stephan have not yet successfully tipped the Scorer, but hopefully they will have more luck in the last match of the Tipster.

Closest time, aka 'luck':
Both Mark and Stephan tipped the closest time in 5 matches. It's interesting that Stephan had such contrasting luck with the Time of the goal and the Scorer of the goal.
Andre and Joris were unlucky in every single game: unlike Stephan, Joris was unlucky with the Time, and also unlucky with the Scorer.

Franz was the least accurate at tipping the closest time: on average, he was wrong by 39.6 minutes. This didn't stop him being closest in the Belgium - USA game though, just 6 minutes away.

Excluding Greg's 6 matches, Joris actually had the closest average throughout the Tipster, wrong by just 24.6 minutes; despite this, he was never the closest, which probably makes him the unluckiest person in this Tipster.
Mark, who was closest in 5 matches and tipped the exact time twice, had an average discrepancy of 28.7 minutes from the actual time; Stephan's average discrepancy was 27.4 minutes. They each gained 15 points from their tips for the Time, while Joris, with a better average, gained zero points.

The exact time was tipped in 6 matches, whereas the worst winning time was wrong by 47 minutes: Ben's standard tip of 45 minutes was closest to the 92nd minute goal in the Germany - Algeria match.

Goals, Goals, Goals:
The most goals were tipped in the Brazil - Mexico match, with a total of 63 goals predicted.... and that match finished 0-0. :-)
The fewest goals tipped were for the Bosnia & Herzegovina- Iran game, with just 24 goals predicted.
54 goals were tipped for Germany in their game against Algeria, more than any other team; this fixture also had the highest predicted winning margin, as only 7 goals were tipped for Algeria in that game.
The fewest goals tipped for any team were for Bosnia & Herzegovina in their game against Argentina: just 6 goals were predicted for the Balkan team.

Submitting Tips:
Thanks to all the people who managed to spell their own names incorrectly. That always makes me smile. ;-)
And a special mention for all the novelty names used by people when signing their tips: Duke, Deaconinho, Admiral  Lord Viscount... and a few others. :-)

Game 38 Report

Brazil - Netherlands

Ten people tipped a Brazilian victory; Matt tipped a (tactical?) draw; and seven people tipped a win for the Dutch.
Everybody tipped both teams to score at least one goal, so there were no perfect scores.
There were also no correct margins.

Jens was the only person to tip van Persie to score the first goal, so 3 points for him. Ernst tipped the closest time, which is the 1st time he's achieved this in the 2014 Tipster, and gains 3 points too.

At the end of the penultimate match, Paul moves into the lead with 199 points, while Ben remains on 198. With 186 points, Alex K still has a chance of winning the league, but Matt bows out of the title race.

The points table is below.

There's just one game left to go...

Points table

Three people (Paul, Ben, Alex K) have a chance of winning the League; Franz has a chance of winning the Cup.

Everybody else is playing for pride. :-)

Rank	Name	Points		Rank	Name	Points		Rank	Name	Points
1	Paul	199		8	Craig	144		15	Ralph	122
2	Ben	198		9	Joris	144		16	Ernst	116
3	Alex K	186		10	Jens	138		17	Joe	115
4	Matt	178		11	Alex U	136		18	Stephan	101
5	Jim	155		12	Søren	135		19	Alex J	98
6	Franz	154		13	Simon	132		20	Greg	38
7	André	146		14	Mark	129

Statipstics - part I

All of the stats below cover the 37 games played before the weekend.

People:
6 people tipped every single game (and on time!): well done Jens, Mark, Matt, Paul, Soren and Ben.
16 people tipped 80% or more of the games, so thank you to everybody who put in the effort. :-)
The least consistent tipper was Greg, who managed to tip just 6 matches. He actually has the highest points-per-game ratio, but with so few matches I'm pleading a lack of statistical significance as an excuse to ignore his stats. ;-)
Alex J was the 2nd least consistent tipper, missing 20 of the 37 matches.

Points:
The best game for scoring points was Netherlands - Mexico, giving a total of 134 points. With 6 people tipping perfect scores, and 10 other people tipping the correct winner, the only person who didn't gain any points from that match was Greg - who didn't submit a tip. Counting only people who sent tips, on average 7.44 points were scored per person in that game.

The worst game for points also involved Mexico.
Their game against Brazil yielded just 7 points in total, with Ralph gaining all of them for his 1-1 tip.

Perfect Scores:
Brazil - Colombia saw the most perfect scores (7), while there were 6 perfect scores in three other matches.
Several people achieved 5 perfect scores during the Tipster, but only Ben achieved 6. Jens had the fewest - just one.

Winners:
As a group, we were most successful at tipping the winners of 3 matches: 19 people tipped the correct winner of:
- Brazil - Croatia (19 people, only Ralph was wrong)
- Netherlands - Mexico (19 people, Greg didn't tip)
- Germany - Algeria (19 people, Greg didn't tip)

Paul was best at tipping the correct winner, getting it right in 29 matches, meaning his success rate was 78% for the matches he tipped. Alex J actually had a success rate of 76%, but he only tipped 17 matches, which makes one wonder how well he could have done if he'd actually tipped every game (especially considering that he won the 2012 Tipster). Andre also achieved a 76% success rate, but more impressively he did it while tipping 33 of 37 matches.

Footnote: Paul also tipped the correct winner of Brazil - Netherlands, giving him a success rate of 79%.

Game 38 Tips

Tips from the game. Zero points because it's not yet finished.

Brazil - Netherlands					Points
Name	Score	Scorer	Time		Points	Running Total
Alex J	x:x	x	999		0	98
Alex K	2:1	Hulk	26		0	186
Alex U	2:1	Hulk	25		0	136
André	2:1	Oscar	34		0	146
Ben	2:1	Arjen Robben	45		0	198
Craig	2:1	Bernard	46		0	144
Ernst	1:3	Arjen Robben	20		0	108
Franz	3:2	Arjen Robben	41		0	154
Greg	x:x	x	999		0	38
Jens	1:3	Robin van Persie (c)	23		0	130
Jim	1:2	Oscar	39		0	150
Joe	1:2	Arjen Robben	23		0	110
Joris	1:2	Arjen Robben	25		0	139
Mark	2:1	Fred	30		0	129
Matt	1:1	Arjen Robben	49		0	178
Paul	1:2	Arjen Robben	31		0	194
Ralph	3:1	Oscar	27		0	122
Simon	1:3	Ramires	44		0	127
Søren	2:1	Oscar	34		0	135
Stephan	3:1	Oscar	23		0	101

Tipster Cup Update

The Semi-Finals of the Tipster Cup are now complete, with the following scores:
(the winners are highlighted in bold)

Franz 5
Søren 5

Craig 0
Ben 13

Søren and Franz drew with 5 points each, so that tie is determined by looking at their points from the previous 4 matches:

Franz 32
Søren 24
and so Franz proceeds to the Final of the Tipster Cup.

The Finalists are therefore:
Franz v Ben

And the Final of the Tipster Cup corresponds to the Final in Brazil on 13th July.

Game 37 Report

Argentina - Netherlands

Only one person tipped a draw: congratulations Simon for a perfect score, 10 points for you.

The five people who tipped a victory for Argentina each gain 5 points for tipping the winner. With no goals scored during 120 minutes of football, there are no points available for 1st Scorer or Time of 1st goal.
Fewer points were scored in this game (35 points) than in any other since Algeria beat South Korea (26) on 22nd June.

At the end of the Semi-Finals, Ben is still 1st with 198 points, while Paul remains 4 points behind with 194.

The Points Table is below.

There are two games still to tip in the League: Saturday's 3rd-place play-off between Brazil and the Netherlands, and Sunday's Final between Germany and Argentina.

Points Table

With the Semi-Finals now complete, the Tipster League Table looks like this:

Rank	Name	Points		Rank	Name	Points		Rank	Name	Points
1	Ben	198		8	Craig	144		15	Ralph	122
2	Paul	194		9	Joris	139		16	Joe	110
3	Alex K	186		10	Alex U	136		17	Ernst	108
4	Matt	178		11	Søren	135		18	Stephan	101
5	Franz	154		12	Jens	130		19	Alex J	98
6	Jim	150		13	Mark	129		20	Greg	38
7	André	146		14	Simon	127

Game 37 Tips

Here are the tips for tonight's game, which has now kicked off.
Twelve people are tipping a Dutch victory, while five people are tipping a win for the Argies; one person is tipping a draw.
In total, 29 goals have been tipped for the Netherlands, and 18 against.
League leader Ben has tipped 2-1 for Argentina, while 2nd placed Paul has tipped 1-0, and both have tipped Messi to score first. It's not enough to tip the winner or even the margin, it will need an exact score for one to gain more points than the other... or some luck with the time of the first goal.
On the other hand, a win for the Dutch would bring Alex K up to 2nd place; a 1-goal winning margin would bring him to joint 1st; and a 1-0 victory would send him into 1st place. It's tight at the top!

Argentina - Netherlands					Points
Name	Score	Scorer	Time		Points	Running Total
Alex J	x:x	x	999		0	98
Alex K	0:1	Arjen Robben	63		0	186
Alex U	1:3	Robin van Persie	15		0	136
André	1:2	Robin van Persie	51		0	146
Ben	2:1	Lionel Messi	45		0	193
Craig	1:2	Ezequiel Lavezzi	45		0	144
Ernst	1:3	Klaas-Jan Huntelaar	35		0	108
Franz	1:2	Arjen Robben	65		0	154
Greg	x:x	x	999		0	38
Jens	1:3	Robin van Persie	23		0	130
Jim	1:2	Wesley Sneijder	56		0	150
Joe	0:1	Robin van Persie	82		0	110
Joris	1:2	Arjen Robben	25		0	139
Mark	2:1	Gonzalo Higuaín	23		0	124
Matt	2:1	Lionel Messi	33		0	173
Paul	1:0	Lionel Messi	36		0	189
Ralph	1:3	Robin van Persie	14		0	122
Simon	0:0	Enzo Pérez	115		0	117
Søren	2:0	Lionel Messi	28		0	130
Stephan	0:2	Arjen Robben	8		0	101

Game 36 Report

Germany - Brazil

Most people tipped a tight game, with only three people tipping a victory of more than 1 goal for Germany, and four people tipping a Brazilian victory.

Five people tipped a German win, and gain 5 points each. Ben, Paul and Simon all tipped Müller to score first, giving them 3 points each. For the Time of the 1st goal, Jim tipped the 19th minute, while Stephan tipped the 3rd minute, meaning they were both 8 minutes away and each gains 3 points.

At the end of the first semi-final, Ben remains 1st with 193 points, Paul is 2nd with 189, and Alex K has 186 points. Matt's tip for Brazil leaves him a little off the pace in 4th place with 173.
Congratulations to Stephan who reaches the 100 point mark. The winner of the 2012 Tipster, Alex J, is now 2nd last in the league with 98 points.

Tipster Cup:
At half-time in the semi-final of the Tipster Cup, Franz leads Søren by 5 points to nil, while Ben leads Craig by 8 points to nil. Tonight's Netherlands - Argentina will conclude the semi-finals.

Game 36 Tips

Germany - Brazil					Points
Name	Score	Scorer	Time		Points	Running Total
Alex J	x:x	x	999		0	98
Alex K	2:1	Bastian Schweinsteiger	48		5	186
Alex U	1:2	Hulk	25		0	136
André	1:2	Oscar	32		0	146
Ben	1:0	Thomas Müller	45		8	193
Craig	2:2	Mesut Özil	51		0	144
Ernst	2:1	Mesut Özil	40		5	108
Franz	2:1	Philipp Lahm (c)	42		5	154
Greg	x:x	x	999		0	38
Jens	3:1	Mats Hummels	27		5	130
Jim	2:0	Miroslav Klose	19		8	150
Joe	1:2	David Luiz	75		0	110
Joris	2:1	Miroslav Klose	20		5	139
Mark	1:1	Hulk	40		0	124
Matt	1:2	Fred	50		0	173
Paul	2:1	Thomas Müller	58		8	189
Ralph	x:x	x	999		0	122
Simon	2:1	Thomas Müller	40		8	117
Søren	1:1	Oscar	34		0	130
Stephan	3:1	André Schürrle	3		8	101

Tipster Cup Update

The Quarter Finals of the Tipster Cup are now complete, with the following scores:
(the winners are highlighted in bold)

Matt 20
Franz 32

Joe 5
Søren 24

Craig 22
Ernst 15

Mark 17
Ben 29

The Semi-Finals of the Tipster Cup correspond to the Semi-Finals in Brazil on 8th & 9th July, i.e.
Germany - Brazil
Argentina - Netherlands

The opponents for the Semi-Finals are:
Franz v Søren
Craig v Ben

The Final of the Tipster Cup corresponds to the Final in Brazil on 13th July.

Game 34 & 35 Report

Argentina - Belgium

There was no Tipster 'favourite' for this match.
Seven people tipped Argentina to win, with a total of 21 goals tipped for the men in blue and white.
Nine people tipped Belgium to win, with 22 goals for the Red Devils.

Congratulations to Franz, who was the only person to tip a perfect score: 10 points for him.
Five people tipped the correct margin, and gain 7 points each: Alex K, Ben, Craig, Simon and Soren, while Paul gains 5 points.

Nobody tipped Higuain to score first, but Stephan gains 3 points for tipping a perfect time.
Fewer points were scored in this match than in any other since Algeria drew with Russia in the last Group match.

Netherlands - Costa Rica

This match had a clear Tipster favourite: nobody tipped Costa Rica to win this game.
Jim and Soren both tipped a 1-1 draw, and they each gain 7 points for the correct margin.

Fifteen people tipped the Netherlands to win, so 5 points for each of them.
With no goals scored during the entire 120 minutes of playing time, there are no points for 1st Scorer or closest Time.

At the end of Saturday's games, Ben remains in the lead with 185 points. Paul and Alex K are joint 2nd with 181, while Matt has 173.
A special mention to Simon and Ernst, who both passed the 100 points mark. Well done!
The points table is in the post below.

Points Table

With the Quarter Finals now complete, the Tipster League Table looks like this:

Rank	Name	Points		Rank	Name	Points		Rank	Name	Points
1	Ben	185		8	Jim	142		15	Joe	110
2	Paul	181		9	Alex U	136		16	Simon	109
3	Alex K	181		10	Joris	134		17	Ernst	103
4	Matt	173		11	Søren	130		18	Alex J	98
5	Franz	149		12	Jens	125		19	Stephan	93
6	André	146		13	Mark	124		20	Greg	38
7	Craig	144		14	Ralph	122

Game 35 Tips

Netherlands - Costa Rica					Points
Name	Score	Scorer	Time		Points	Running Total
Alex J	x:x	x	999		0	98
Alex K	2:0	Arjen Robben	32		5	181
Alex U	3:0	Robin van Persie	15		5	136
André	3:0	Robin van Persie	17		5	146
Ben	2:1	Arjen Robben	45		5	185
Craig	3:1	Joel Campbell	70		5	144
Ernst	3:0	Klaas-Jan Huntelaar	20		5	103
Franz	2:1	Arjen Robben	65		5	149
Greg	x:x	x	999		0	38
Jens	3:1	Robin van Persie	29		5	125
Jim	1:1	Bryan Ruiz	33		7	142
Joe	2:0	Arjen Robben	22		5	110
Joris	2:1	Robin van Persie	35		5	134
Mark	2:1	Robin van Persie	17		5	124
Matt	2:0	Robin van Persie	33		5	173
Paul	2:0	Robin van Persie	63		5	181
Ralph	3:0	Klaas-Jan Huntelaar	38		5	122
Simon	3:2	Robin van Persie	25		5	109
Søren	1:1	Robin van Persie	33		7	130
Stephan	1:2	Diego Calvo	20		0	93

Game 34 Tips

Argentina - Belgium					Points
Name	Score	Scorer	Time		Points	Running Total
Alex J	x:x	x	999		0	98
Alex K	2:1	Lionel Messi	23		7	176
Alex U	1:2	Kevin De Bruyne	15		0	131
André	x:x	x	999		0	141
Ben	2:1	Ángel di María	45		7	180
Craig	3:2	Lionel Messi	78		7	139
Ernst	1:2	Kevin De Bruyne	30		0	98
Franz	1:0	Lionel Messi	83		10	144
Greg	x:x	x	999		0	38
Jens	2:3	Steven Defour	23		0	120
Jim	0:1	Axel Witsel	72		0	135
Joe	1:1	Dries Mertens	80		0	105
Joris	1:2	Eden Hazard	45		0	129
Mark	1:2	Eden Hazard	28		0	119
Matt	0:1	Kevin De Bruyne	60		0	168
Paul	2:0	Lionel Messi	57		5	176
Ralph	x:x	x	999		0	117
Simon	2:1	Lionel Messi	30		7	104
Søren	2:1	Lionel Messi	19		7	123
Stephan	0:2	Eden Hazard	8		3	93

Game 32 & 33 Report

France - Germany

One person tipped a perfect score: congratulations Paul, 10 points for you.
Eight more people tipped a 1-goal victory for the Germans, gaining 7 points each.

Stephan tipped a 2-goal victory, giving him 5 points.
Nobody tipped Hummels to score first; Stephan had the closest time, 6 minutes away from the actual, so another 3 points for him.
League Leader Alex K scored zero points for the first time since Costa Rica drew 0-0 with England in Game 18 on 24th June.

Brazil - Colombia

Colombia's late penalty meant this match gave us the most perfect scores so far in this Tipster. Seven people tipped a 2-1 victory for Brazil: 10 points each for Alex U, Ben, Craig, Ernst, Franz, Paul and Soren, while Alex K gained 7 points for tipping a 1-goal victory for Brazil.

Six more people each gained 5 points for tipping a Brazilian victory.
Nobody tipped Thiago Silva to score first; Matt tipped the closest time, which is the 4th time he's done this in the past 7 matches.

At the end of Friday's games, Alex K finally loses his position at the top of the table, after leading the league since Bosnia & Herzegovina beat Iran 3-1 in Game 21 on 25th June.
Ben squeezes into 1st place with 173 points, just one ahead of Paul on 172. Alex K has 169 points, while Matt has 168

Game 33 Tips

Brazil - Colombia					Points
Name	Score	Scorer	Time		Points	Running Total
Alex J	x:x	x	999		0	98
Alex K	1:0	Hulk	54		7	169
Alex U	2:1	Neymar	30		10	131
André	2:0	James Rodríguez	31		5	141
Ben	2:1	Fred	45		10	173
Craig	2:1	x	80		10	132
Ernst	2:1	Neymar	20		10	98
Franz	2:1	Neymar	74		10	134
Greg	x:x	x	999		0	38
Jens	3:1	Hulk	30		5	120
Jim	1:2	Teófilo Gutiérrez	36		0	135
Joe	0:1	James Rodríguez	30		0	105
Joris	3:1	James Rodríguez	20		5	129
Mark	2:0	Hulk	24		5	119
Matt	3:1	Neymar	11		8	168
Paul	2:1	Neymar	31		10	171
Ralph	0:1	Mario Yepes	13		0	117
Simon	x:x	x	999		0	97
Søren	2:1	Neymar	23		10	116
Stephan	2:0	Oscar	20		5	90

Game 32 Tips

France - Germany					Points
Name	Score	Scorer	Time		Points	Running Total
Alex J	x:x	x	999		0	98
Alex K	3:2	Olivier Giroud	23		0	162
Alex U	1:2	Thomas Müller	25		7	121
André	2:1	Karim Benzema	24		0	136
Ben	2:3	Antoine Griezmann	45		7	163
Craig	2:0	Mathieu Valbuena	51		0	122
Ernst	x:x	x	999		0	88
Franz	1:2	Thomas Müller	71		7	124
Greg	x:x	x	999		0	38
Jens	1:2	Mario Götze	40		7	115
Jim	1:2	Thomas Müller	29		7	135
Joe	2:1	Karim Benzema	44		0	105
Joris	1:2	Mesut Özil	30		7	124
Mark	1:2	Karim Benzema	38		7	114
Matt	1:2	Thomas Müller	47		7	160
Paul	0:1	Thomas Müller	72		10	161
Ralph	x:x	x	999		0	117
Simon	x:x	x	999		0	97
Søren	1:1	Thomas Müller	32		0	106
Stephan	1:3	Thomas Müller	6		8	85